The Centre for Biosecurity and Biopreparedness (CBB) performs threat analysis on three different levels – strategic, operational and tactical.
On the strategic level, technological developments and trends concerning misuse of biology are being monitored. This work supports CBB's priorities and involvement with international disarmament organizations. It is also the basis for setting the requirements for physical and other security measures at Danish facilities with controlled biological substances, related materials or technologies.
On the operational level, threat analysis contribute to the identification of specific misuse potential and helps to set out the guidelines for securing controlled material.
On the tactical level, CBB conducts a threat analysis at the outset of an investigation of a biological incident. Here the analysis contributes to answering what the disseminated material is, where it was disseminated and whether the dissemination is contained or ongoing.
On all levels, CBB's threat analysis is based on evidence and testing, and experiments have been carried out with both dispersal and improvised manufacturing methods. All experiments are performed with harmless simulants.
In principle the analysis of a biological threat involves assessment of two main components: Intention and risk. These main components can be further divided into sub elements (figure).
A threat can therefore be described as a product of intention and risk. A substance with dual-use capability (i.e. a biological substance, related material or technology that can be used for both peaceful and offensive purposes) does not by itself pose a threat without the intent of misuse.
The intention to use a given substance offensively depends on the usability of the substance, and on obstacles to the use, i.e. how difficult it is to obtain and apply the substance. A malicious actor will consider a substance useful if it is effective in achieving a certain desired objective. Obstacles can be practical factors such as financial costs and security issues, but it can also be ethical considerations in relation to the use of a biological weapon - even malicious actors can have a need to control and limit the effect of an attack for example by using a biological substance that cannot be transmitted from person to person.
The risk of a given material can be described as a combination of the opportunity for use and the consequences of use. The opportunity for use is tightly linked to the availability of the substance, i.e. how difficult it is to acquire. A significant goal of CBB's biosecurity activity is about reducing the availability of controlled materials. In addition, previous attempts at misuse are also good indications of whether a substance is likely to be used.
